Value Picks
Matches where our model sees a much higher probability than the market prices in — our core signal.
FIFA World Cup4 Jul 2026, 17:00
Canada vs Morocco
VALUE +31pp
Canada
Model 50%Market 18%
FIFA World Cup3 Jul 2026, 03:00
Switzerland vs Algeria
VALUE +27pp
Over 2.5
Model 72%Market 45%
FIFA World Cup1 Jul 2026, 20:00
Belgium vs Senegal
VALUE +26pp
Over 2.5
Model 72%Market 46%
Brasileirão Série B6 Jul 2026, 22:00
Vila Nova vs São Bernardo
VALUE +14pp
São Bernardo
Model 35%Market 21%
Brasileirão Série B4 Jul 2026, 19:00
Londrina vs CRB
VALUE +12pp
Over 2.5
Model 59%Market 47%
FIFA World Cup2 Jul 2026, 23:00
Portugal vs Croatia
VALUE +10pp
Over 2.5
Model 55%Market 45%
Allsvenskan5 Jul 2026, 12:00
IFK Göteborg vs AIK
VALUE +9pp
AIK
Model 40%Market 31%
Brasileirão Série B5 Jul 2026, 22:00
Náutico vs Juventude
VALUE +9pp
Juventude
Model 38%Market 29%
FIFA World Cup4 Jul 2026, 01:30
Colombia vs Ghana
VALUE +9pp
Draw
Model 34%Market 25%
Allsvenskan5 Jul 2026, 14:30
Elfsborg vs Hammarby
VALUE +8pp
Elfsborg
Model 35%Market 26%
FIFA World Cup2 Jul 2026, 19:00
Spain vs Austria
VALUE +8pp
Austria
Model 18%Market 10%
Allsvenskan4 Jul 2026, 13:00
Degerfors vs Malmö FF
VALUE +7pp
Degerfors
Model 38%Market 31%
Allsvenskan5 Jul 2026, 12:00
Kalmar vs Örgryte
VALUE +7pp
Örgryte
Model 24%Market 17%
FIFA World Cup3 Jul 2026, 22:00
Argentina vs Cape Verde Islands
VALUE +7pp
Draw
Model 22%Market 15%
Allsvenskan4 Jul 2026, 13:00
Halmstad vs Västerås SK
VALUE +5pp
Västerås SK
Model 41%Market 36%
Brasileirão Série B4 Jul 2026, 19:00
Novorizontino vs Atlético GO
VALUE +5pp
Atlético GO
Model 27%Market 22%
Edge = model probability minus market probability. Poisson model over season averages; small samples inflate the edge. Reference only, not betting advice.