Track Record
How our model predictions did vs. the market on pre-match calls, graded on finished matches. Full transparency.
Return following the model · Prediction > +5pp
+9.28
units
+35.7%
ROI
13-13
26 value picks · 50%
Backtest: 1 unit on each value pick (model > market), at closing odds and the real result. Illustrative, not betting advice.
1X2 accuracy (model)
45%
18/40 sample
1X2 accuracy (market)
43%
17/40 sample
Over/Under 2.5 accuracy
78%
80/103 sample
Recent results
| Matches & Analysis | Prediction | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| England vs Congo DR 1 Jul 2026 | England | 2–1 | ✓ Hit |
| Mexico vs Ecuador 1 Jul 2026 | Mexico | 2–0 | ✓ Hit |
| Botafogo SP vs CRB 30 Jun 2026 | Botafogo SP | 0–1 | ✗ Miss |
| France vs Sweden 30 Jun 2026 | France | 3–0 | ✓ Hit |
| Ivory Coast vs Norway 30 Jun 2026 | Ivory Coast | 1–2 | ✗ Miss |
| Netherlands vs Morocco 30 Jun 2026 | Netherlands | 1–1 | ✗ Miss |
| Germany vs Paraguay 29 Jun 2026 | Germany | 1–1 | ✗ Miss |
| Brazil vs Japan 29 Jun 2026 | Brazil | 2–1 | ✓ Hit |
| South Africa vs Canada 28 Jun 2026 | Canada | 0–1 | ✓ Hit |
| Algeria vs Austria 28 Jun 2026 | Austria | 3–3 | ✗ Miss |
| Jordan vs Argentina 28 Jun 2026 | Argentina | 1–3 | ✓ Hit |
| Náutico vs Goiás 28 Jun 2026 | Náutico | 0–1 | ✗ Miss |
| Fortaleza vs Sport Recife 28 Jun 2026 | Sport Recife | 2–1 | ✗ Miss |
| Atlético GO vs Ponte Preta 28 Jun 2026 | Atlético GO | 2–0 | ✓ Hit |
| Colombia vs Portugal 27 Jun 2026 | Portugal | 0–0 | ✗ Miss |
| Congo DR vs Uzbekistan 27 Jun 2026 | Congo DR | 3–1 | ✓ Hit |
| Croatia vs Ghana 27 Jun 2026 | Croatia | 2–1 | ✓ Hit |
| Panama vs England 27 Jun 2026 | England | 0–2 | ✓ Hit |
| Egypt vs Iran 27 Jun 2026 | Egypt | 1–1 | ✗ Miss |
| New Zealand vs Belgium 27 Jun 2026 | Belgium | 1–5 | ✓ Hit |
| Uruguay vs Spain 27 Jun 2026 | Spain | 0–1 | ✓ Hit |
| Cape Verde Islands vs Saudi Arabia 27 Jun 2026 | Cape Verde Islands | 0–0 | ✗ Miss |
| Novorizontino vs Vila Nova 26 Jun 2026 | Novorizontino | 2–1 | ✓ Hit |
| Senegal vs Iraq 26 Jun 2026 | Senegal | 5–0 | ✓ Hit |
| Norway vs France 26 Jun 2026 | France | 1–4 | ✓ Hit |
| Paraguay vs Australia 26 Jun 2026 | Australia | 0–0 | ✗ Miss |
| Japan vs Sweden 25 Jun 2026 | Japan | 1–1 | ✗ Miss |
| Tunisia vs Netherlands 25 Jun 2026 | Netherlands | 1–3 | ✓ Hit |
| Ecuador vs Germany 25 Jun 2026 | Germany | 2–1 | ✗ Miss |
| Curaçao vs Ivory Coast 25 Jun 2026 | Ivory Coast | 0–2 | ✓ Hit |
| South Africa vs South Korea 25 Jun 2026 | Draw | 1–0 | ✗ Miss |
| Morocco vs Haiti 24 Jun 2026 | Morocco | 4–2 | ✓ Hit |
| Scotland vs Brazil 24 Jun 2026 | Brazil | 0–3 | ✓ Hit |
| Switzerland vs Canada 24 Jun 2026 | Switzerland | 2–1 | ✓ Hit |
| Colombia vs Congo DR 24 Jun 2026 | Colombia | 1–0 | ✓ Hit |
| Panama vs Croatia 23 Jun 2026 | Croatia | 0–1 | ✓ Hit |
| England vs Ghana 23 Jun 2026 | England | 0–0 | ✗ Miss |
| Portugal vs Uzbekistan 23 Jun 2026 | Portugal | 5–0 | ✓ Hit |
| Jordan vs Algeria 23 Jun 2026 | Algeria | 1–2 | ✓ Hit |
| Norway vs Senegal 23 Jun 2026 | Norway | 3–2 | ✓ Hit |
Poisson model over season averages. Informational only, not betting advice.