29 Aug 2026
Iran vs Belgium in the FIFA and Elo rankings: how to compare the teams
Belgium usually ranks above Iran in the FIFA and Elo rankings, but each system measures results differently. This guide explains the points systems, historical development, squad strength and the limitations of these lists.
How the FIFA and Elo rankings work
The FIFA World Ranking uses a points-based system in which points are added or deducted. The value changes after each match according to the game’s importance, the opponent’s strength and the result. A World Cup win carries more weight than a friendly victory. The calculation also considers the expected result: beating a stronger team earns more points than defeating an inferior side. A draw can be a good result for a lower-ranked team facing a favourite.
What the Elo system measures
Elo also compares the actual result with the expected result, but it generally gives more weight to the difference in strength between the teams and home advantage. Updates tend to be more direct: an Iran win over Belgium would produce a major gain for the Iranians and a significant drop for the Belgians. Competitions may receive different weightings depending on the model version. As a result, there is no single official Elo ranking: websites and researchers may publish different figures.
Historical comparison between Iran and Belgium
Belgium enjoyed a long rise during the 2010s. The generation featuring players such as Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard, Romelu Lukaku, Thibaut Courtois and Vincent Kompany took the team to first place in the FIFA ranking between 2018 and 2021, as well as third place at the 2018 World Cup. The departure of some of that generation and underwhelming results later reduced Belgium’s position. Iran usually leads or challenges for top spot among Asian teams. It reached 15th in the FIFA ranking in 2018, its highest position in that ranking, but has had less success against top European and South American sides.
Squad strength
Belgium normally has the edge in depth, experience in Europe’s top leagues and the number of players accustomed to high-level matches. The team can rely on possession control, passes between the lines and attackers capable of deciding a game. Iran’s strengths include defensive organisation, physical play, quick transitions and set pieces. Players such as Mehdi Taremi and Sardar Azmoun have increased the national team’s attacking ability, but the Iranian squad generally offers fewer substitutes of a comparable level. This difference helps explain the average gap between the two rankings.
Why the ranking does not determine the result
Rankings accumulate results; they do not measure a team’s entire potential in a single match. The FIFA system can be affected by the number of friendlies, the continental calendar and the weighting assigned to each competition. Elo depends on the chosen formula and may react differently to recent matches. Injuries, a change of coach, player availability, travel and the style of the matchup are also excluded from the calculation. Belgium may be the favourite in an overall comparison, but Iran can make the game competitive by defending well, attacking spaces and avoiding turnovers in its own half.
How to make a fair comparison
Use FIFA’s position and points to assess recent official history, but check the ranking date. To measure current strength, also compare the latest Elo rating, recent matches against similarly ranked opponents and the available line-up. Look at tournament performances too: Belgium has achieved stronger results at recent World Cups, while Iran is usually more consistent in the Asian football landscape. The best analysis combines these data points with context rather than treating a single number as a definitive measure.
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Analysis: PK Sport · our methodology
Analysis based on public data and market signals. For analysis only — not betting advice.