CF Pachuca vs Puebla: result, lineups & analysis — Liga MX

✓ Got right: The analysis correctly backed over 2.5 goals, although it treated the market as only moderate support. It also recognised that Pachuca had greater shot volume and could expose the flanks by pushing its full-backs forward, a dynamic consistent with Puebla's 2.27 xG from transitions.

✗ Missed: The home-team favoritism was overstated, while Puebla's low average xG understated its actual threat in this match: the visitors produced 2.27 xG, virtually equal to Pachuca's 2.25, and won through greater efficiency. The analysis also did not give enough weight to the risk that Pachuca's volume would lead to wastefulness, as it recorded 22 shots but only four on target.

Post-match self-grade of our pre-match analysis (1-10). Feeds the system’s learning loop.