Coritiba vs Mirassol: result, lineups & analysis — Brasileirão Série A
Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC
🏟 Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira · Curitiba
🏁 Post-match review
Mirassol beat Coritiba 2–1 away from home, a result that went against the initial expectation of the hosts dominating. The match produced three goals, exceeding the projection of a more controlled game with fewer than 2.5 goals.
Expectation：The result did not match the pre-match outlook, which pointed to a Coritiba win. It was also an upset according to the market, which gave the hosts the highest probability of victory, though without making them strong favourites.
The win gives Mirassol an important away victory and highlights Coritiba’s difficulty in turning home advantage, better form and league-table context into a result. For the hosts, the defeat interrupts the positive momentum built before the match.
Based on the final score and pre-match analysis (no in-match events).
📋 Overview
Confidence 3/5Coritiba have the home advantage, greater stability and superior momentum to beat Mirassol in a controlled-scoring game, with an under-2.5 goals lean.
Coritiba are seventh with 37 points and have been more consistent than 16th-placed Mirassol, who have 25 points. Recent form clearly favours the hosts, while the visitors have lost three of their last four matches and conceded 13 goals across their last six. The Poisson model expects a balanced goal count, but the combination of home advantage, relative defensive performance and the referee profile supports a narrow Coritiba win and under 2.5 goals.
📌 Analysis direction
Coritiba have the clearest route to controlling the game through home advantage, greater stability and Mirassol’s defensive vulnerability. Even so, the visitors’ higher xG and the hosts’ limited attacking output point to a narrow edge, with a fragmented rhythm and low scoreline as the central scenario.
🔑 Key points
Table position and form
Coritiba sit seventh with 37 points from 25 rounds, averaging 1.42 points per game. Mirassol are 16th with 25 points and come in on an LDDLLL run, while Coritiba’s recent sequence is WWDWLD.
Moderate attacking output
The advanced numbers do not point to a high-volume game: Coritiba average 0.82 xG and 12.7 shots, compared with Mirassol’s 1.06 xG and 11.4 attempts. The combined xG is low despite the model projecting 2.6 goals.
Vulnerable away defence
Mirassol have kept clean sheets in only 4% of matches, compared with Coritiba’s 25%, and concede 1.5 goals per game this season. That gives the hosts a clear route to victory without needing to dominate attacking volume.
Market and model disagree on goals
The market estimates approximately 40.9% for a Coritiba win, 29.6% for a draw and 29.6% for a Mirassol victory. The Poisson model is slightly more favourable to the hosts, giving them a 45% win probability, but projects a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals, above the market’s 43%; the goals angle therefore requires more caution than the result call.
Referee points to a physical game
A. Policarpo Bento averages 6.17 cards and 1.83 goals per match, with no penalties in his sample. Frequent stoppages could disrupt the rhythm and reduce the fluency of transitions, particularly in a matchup with modest xG averages.
⚖️ Edges & risks per team
- +Coritiba have 37 points, sit seventh and average 1.42 points per game, a significant competitive edge over Mirassol’s 1.04; this gives the hosts more scope to impose their plan without committing too early.
- +The WWDWLD sequence is more stable than the visitors’ LDDLLL run, while Mirassol almost never keep a clean sheet, doing so in just 4% of matches; in practice, an only average attacking performance from Coritiba may be enough to create a lead.
- +The 4-2-3-1, used in 83% of matches, gives Coritiba a more settled tactical reference than Mirassol’s 71%; this should help the hosts protect the centre after scoring.
- +Coritiba average 4.3 corners, slightly more than Mirassol’s 3.9, which could create territorial pressure in a game where the visitors are likely to defend deeper and concede second balls.
- −Coritiba’s average xG is only 0.82, with 12.7 attempts per match; if they circulate possession without accelerating in the final third, they may struggle to turn home advantage into goals.
- −The home defence concedes 1.3 goals per game and keeps clean sheets in only 25% of matches, while Mirassol produce 1.06 xG; one well-executed transition could put the favourites under pressure.
- −Pedro Rangel is still regaining rhythm after meniscus surgery, according to local reports, although Pedro Morisco is currently the main option; any unplanned change in goal or defence would reduce the hosts’ stability.
- −The Poisson projection makes 1-1 the most likely score at 12%, indicating that Coritiba’s superiority is real but narrow and vulnerable in a low-chance game.
- +Mirassol average 1.06 xG, above Coritiba’s 0.82, and can create danger with fewer attempts if they find space behind the home full-backs.
- +Coritiba concede 1.3 goals per match and keep clean sheets in only 25% of games, keeping alive the visitors’ chances of scoring from a transition or set piece.
- +Rafael Guanaes has 13 years of management experience and has worked at 11 clubs, including Atlético Goianiense, Operário-PR and Novorizontino; that experience could help the team adjust its 4-2-3-1 during the match despite the poor run.
- +The corner averages are close, 3.9 for Mirassol and 4.3 for Coritiba, so the visitors do not rely solely on possession to apply pressure and can pose a threat with deliveries into the box.
- −Recent form is the main problem: Mirassol come in on LDDLLL, scoring four and conceding 13 across the six matches cited; this points to declining confidence and difficulty sustaining a response after conceding.
- −The club are 16th with 25 points and a -12 goal difference, while Coritiba are seven places higher; the need for points could push the visitors into a cautious approach and reduce their attacking presence.
- −A clean-sheet rate of only 4% leaves little room for defensive errors against an organised home side averaging 1.3 goals scored per game this season.
- −The referee averages 6.17 cards and has awarded no penalties in the sample; a highly physical match could punish the team forced to defend for long periods and limit Mirassol’s intensity in the challenges.
📐 Tactical analysis
Both teams mainly use a 4-2-3-1, with Coritiba employing it in 83% of matches and Mirassol in 71%. The hosts tend to have the more stable structure, with two holding midfielders protecting the defence and the central midfielder linking play, while Mirassol are likely to alternate between short pressing and more direct exits, especially away from home and amid poor form. The central battle will be between Coritiba’s ability to attack the space behind Mirassol’s low clean-sheet rate and the visitors’ attempt to exploit a home defence that still concedes 1.3 goals per game and is not entirely reliable. If Coritiba score first, the game should favour territorial control and a slower tempo; if Mirassol beat the initial press, they could turn it into a more open contest than the numbers suggest.
📊 Market expectation (1X2)
Market heat 🔥🔥Odds movement ±1pts
Market read：The market makes Coritiba moderate favourites rather than a dominant team: their implied win probability is close to 41%, compared with almost 30% each for a draw and an away win. The Poisson model reinforces the home edge at 45%, but its most likely scores are 1-1, 1-0 and 2-1, while its over-2.5 projection reaches 49%. The main disagreement concerns the goals: the market gives over 2.5 a 43% probability, while the model is slightly more positive on the over, although both remain below 50%. Raw form may also be influenced by the strength of opponents faced and should not be read in isolation.
De-vigged implied probability · for analysis only, not betting advice.
📐 Statistical score reference
Poisson reference based only on season goal averages. It is not the full-analysis prediction or betting advice.
🎓 Coaches / Formations
Coaches & tactical battle：Robson Gomes has been at Coritiba since July 2017, giving him nine years in charge, and has overseen a season record of 9 wins, 7 draws and 8 defeats; that long tenure suggests a side more familiar with the 4-2-3-1. The goals, shots and points numbers portray Coritiba as a controlled-production team that must attack with quality without abandoning the protection provided by the two holding midfielders. Rafael Guanaes, 44, has 13 years in management and has coached 11 clubs, but his Mirassol arrive with 4 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats, while conceding 1.5 goals per game. The match will be decided by Coritiba’s ability to attack the visitors’ defence without allowing Mirassol’s higher xG to become clean transitions behind the full-backs.
🔬 Advanced data (averages)
Per-game averages in this competition · FootyStats / API-Football
🚩 Corners & special markets
Coritiba and Mirassol average 4.3 and 3.9 corners respectively, a combined 8.2 that suggests a reasonable set-piece presence without indicating an attacking avalanche. Since Mirassol concede frequently and Coritiba hold a slight territorial edge, aerial deliveries favour the hosts, but the referee’s low goal average and lack of penalties support under 2.5 more than a strong BTTS scenario.
X-factors
- ▸Pedro Rangel’s gradual recovery could increase competition for Coritiba’s goalkeeping position, but Pedro Morisco remains the main option and the report does not confirm any absence for this match.
- ▸Mirassol average more xG than Coritiba, 1.06 to 0.82, and could offset their poorer form with a few well-executed transitions.
- ▸The referee’s high card average of 6.17 per match could affect full-backs and holding midfielders and alter the intensity of battles in the wide areas.
What to watch
- ▸Who wins the battle between Coritiba’s two holding midfielders and Mirassol’s central midfielder for second balls.
- ▸Mirassol’s response after conceding first, given their clean-sheet rate of only 4%.
- ▸The number of first-half cards and their effect on the full-backs’ pressing and transitional play.
📈 Recent form
- 2026-09-12 · (H) 3–3 vs Atletico Paranaense
- 2026-09-06 · (H) 1–2 vs Mirassol
- 2026-08-31 · (A) 3–2 vs Remo
- 2026-08-23 · (H) 2–1 vs Corinthians
- 2026-08-16 · (A) 1–1 vs Sao Paulo
- 2026-09-06 · (A) 2–1 vs Coritiba
- 2026-09-02 · (A) 0–2 vs Flamengo
- 2026-08-30 · (H) 1–1 vs Palmeiras
- 2026-08-23 · (A) 1–1 vs Santos
- 2026-08-16 · (H) 1–5 vs Flamengo
🆚 Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06 · Coritiba 1–2 Mirassol
🧑⚖️ Referee
Andre Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento, Brazil
Referee averages in this competition · 10 games · PK Sport
The 6.17 cards per match indicate a high-contact officiating profile, while the 1.83-goal average and absence of penalties point to limited contribution from decisive set-piece incidents. That supports a broken rhythm and fewer goals, but it could increase the risk of dangerous free-kicks for Coritiba if Mirassol accelerate down the flanks, and for the visitors if they spend long periods defending.
✅ Confirmed lineups · Coritiba [4-2-3-1]
API-Football · 6 Sept 2026, 13:41 UTC
- 1Pedro Luccas
- 44João Pedro Chermont
- 4Rodrigo Moledo
- 55Jacy
- 26Bruno Melo
- 28Fabinho
- 19S. Gómez
- 7J. Lavega
- 21Thiago Santos
- 77Breno Lopes
- 32Pedro Rocha
✅ Confirmed lineups · Mirassol [4-2-3-1]
API-Football · 6 Sept 2026, 13:41 UTC
- 23Alex Muralha
- 32Igor Formiga
- 34João Victor
- 3Willian Machado
- 6Reinaldo
- 80Wallisson
- 27Denilson
- 19Gustavo Silva
- 33Eduardo
- 77Alesson
- 30Bruno Santos
⚡ Key intel: favorable & unfavorable factors
- + FavorablePedro Rocha is in excellent form and is Coritiba’s leading scorer this season, with 10 goals—seven in the Brasileirão and three in his last four appearances. The forward’s form enhances the team’s match-winning threat in a balanced contest.
- + FavorableThiago Santos returns after serving a suspension and strengthens the squad, although Vitor Tissi drops back to the bench. His return gives Fernando Seabra more options for adjusting the midfield during the match.
- − UnfavorablePedro Rangel returned to training just three weeks after knee surgery, but still needs to regain match rhythm and fitness; Pedro Morisco remains the starter. The uncertainty and the lack of a fully ready reserve goalkeeper reduce the department’s margin for error.
- − UnfavorableJacy and Josué were fitness doubts during preparations for the match. If either is ruled out, Coritiba will lose midfield options in terms of structure and intensity.
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AI-curated from all collected news: only facts likely to affect the result.
📰 Recent news
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Only intel rated ≥3★ impact is shown.
🧭 Final integrated verdict
The Série A context favours Coritiba: they are in the upper half of the table with 37 points and arrive in better form, while Mirassol are battling near the bottom with 25 points and have conceded 13 goals in their last six matches. The hosts’ structure is more established under Robson Gomes, and the visitors’ defensive weakness, reflected in a 4% clean-sheet rate and 1.5 goals conceded per game, gives Coritiba the clearest route to controlling the result. Mirassol’s average xG is slightly higher at 1.06 to 0.82, so it would be wrong to project absolute home dominance; nevertheless, their LDDLLL sequence and exposed defence count against a sufficiently efficient performance. The market and Poisson model agree on Coritiba’s advantage but differ on the goals line: the model reaches 2.6 expected goals, while the referee averages 1.83 goals and has awarded no penalties in the sample, pointing towards a more congested game. The final call is a Coritiba win and under 2.5 goals.
🎯 Analysis decision
The conclusion combines competition context, team traits, form, tactics, availability, match intel, graded lessons and market/model references.
Analysis based on public data and market signals. For analysis only — not betting advice.
Data: Sportmonks / API-Football · pksport.net