Mirassol vs Remo: result, lineups & analysis — Brasileirão Série A
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 at 22:30 UTC
🏟 Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia · Mirassol
🏁 Post-match review
Mirassol beat Remo 2-1 at home, confirming their superiority in the fixture. It was a narrow victory, consistent with the evenly matched contest between teams threatened by the relegation zone.
Expectation：The result matched Mirassol’s status as favourites and the pre-match assessment of a narrow home win. However, the prediction of fewer than 2.5 goals was not correct, as the match produced three goals.
Mirassol secured an important win in their battle against relegation, while Remo left defeated and under increasing pressure.
Based on the final score and pre-match analysis (no in-match events).
📋 Overview
Confidence 3/5Mirassol have the stronger platform to control territory at home, but the goalkeeping absences and the urgency on both sides point to a narrow win in a low-scoring game.
This is a direct relegation-zone battle in Série A: Remo are 18th with 21 points from 20 matches, while Mirassol are 19th with 20 points from 19. The market gives the hosts a 54.1% chance of winning, while the available data underline Remo’s attacking limitations, with an average xG of 0.17 and nine shots. Mirassol’s problem is significant: Walter and Alex Muralha are unavailable, affecting the position in which a tight game is often decided.
📌 Analysis direction
Mirassol should control territory and win more corners, while Remo are likely to rely on transitions. The hosts’ goalkeeping vulnerability keeps the threat of an isolated chance alive, but the visitors’ limited attacking output supports a low-scoring scenario.
🎯 Final analysis grade
6/10✓ Got right: The analysis got the main direction right: Mirassol won at home, as indicated by market favoritism, greater attacking output, and the expectation of territorial control. It was also correct to project a narrow victory, although the final score was 2–1.
✗ Missed: The main error was underestimating Remo’s ability to turn a transition or defensive mistake into a goal, despite Mirassol’s absences in goal. The low-scoring assessment relied too heavily on the visitors’ xG and did not adequately account for the risk of both teams scoring.
Post-match self-grade of our pre-match analysis (1-10). Feeds the system’s learning loop.
🔑 Key points
Direct battle to avoid the bottom four
Remo and Mirassol are separated by one point in 18th and 19th place. The pressure should limit early exposure, but it also increases the importance of a goal or defensive error.
Attacking output favours the hosts
Mirassol average 1.11 xG, 12 shots and five corners; Remo have 0.17 xG, nine shots and four corners. The gap suggests more possession and time in the attacking third for the São Paulo side.
Mirassol’s goalkeeping position is a key concern
Walter and Alex Muralha are unavailable. Losing two experienced options simultaneously raises the risk of errors from crosses, rebounds and shots from distance.
The market sees a favourite, not an open game
The odds imply a 54.1% chance of a Mirassol win, 25.6% for a draw and 20.3% for Remo. The 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score point to balance in the totals market, but the visitors’ very low xG leans towards under 2.5.
Recent form calls for caution
Mirassol come off DW in their two most recent matches, while Remo come off WL — a short sample that is sensitive to opposition strength. In the listed sequence, however, Remo’s WLWLW represents stronger recent momentum than Mirassol’s DWLWL.
⚖️ Edges & risks per team
- +Mirassol should have more possession in the opposition half: their averages of 1.11 xG, 12 shots and five corners per game exceed Remo’s 0.17 xG, nine shots and four corners. That favours sustained pressure and more second balls around the visitors’ area.
- +The 4-2-3-1 used in 71% of matches gives Guanaes a between-the-lines reference point and width with which to test Remo’s 4-4-2. Against visitors likely to defend in a lower block, the structure can generate volume even without many clear chances.
- +The market rates Mirassol ahead, with a 54.1% implied probability of victory. It is not proof of performance, but it is consistent with home advantage and the available attacking-production gap.
- +Patrick de Paula’s absence removes a midfielder capable of improving Remo’s possession, shooting from distance and set pieces. For Mirassol, that reduces one of the visitors’ ways to offset their low xG through a small number of high-value actions.
- −Walter and Alex Muralha are both absent, leaving Mirassol without their two listed goalkeeping options. In a projected low-scoring match, one poor decision on a cross or loose ball could carry disproportionate weight.
- −Negueba, José Aldo and Neto Moura reduce the available pace and midfield options. The 4-2-3-1 could lose ball-carrying ability and the capacity to change tempo if Remo close the channels.
- −Rafael Guanaes’ record in the stated sample is four wins, four draws and nine defeats. It does not determine this match, but it shows that Mirassol’s attacking volume has not consistently translated into results.
- −Remo are higher in the table and arrive with a WLWLW sequence, alongside the recent reported 2-0 win over Vitória. That raises the possibility of a more confident visiting side resisting pressure and exploiting a mistake in the hosts’ goal.
- +Remo are one point ahead of Mirassol and have the listed WLWLW sequence. The need to avoid defeat against a direct rival could sharpen their defensive focus and their challenge for second balls.
- +The absence of both Walter and Alex Muralha presents Remo with a clear opportunity: crosses, shots from distance and set pieces become more valuable against a goalkeeper with less experience in the side.
- +Rodrigo Santana’s 4-4-2 can close the channels and congest the centre against Mirassol’s 4-2-3-1. If the lines remain compact, the hosts may be limited to crosses and pressured efforts.
- +The local report of Remo’s 2-0 win over Vitória suggests the team have recently produced a result outside the expected script. It is only contextual evidence, but it reinforces the visitors’ ability to compete reactively.
- −Remo’s average xG of 0.17 and nine shots are the main brake on an away projection. Even with Mirassol’s goalkeeping absences, there are few numerical signs of sustained chance creation to support a high-scoring expectation.
- −Remo have a -9 goal difference, worse than Mirassol’s -5, and sit 18th after 20 matches. The need for points does not erase their broader performance problems.
- −Patrick de Paula’s absence reduces their midfield repertoire, particularly when retaining possession under pressure and creating from set pieces. If Mirassol control territory, Remo may struggle to connect defence and attack.
- −Eduardo Melo, João Lucas and D. Tchamba are also unavailable, reducing rotation options. Without official line-ups, it is impossible to assess who will replace them or quantify each absence precisely.
📐 Tactical analysis
Rafael Guanaes should retain the 4-2-3-1 Mirassol have used in 71% of matches, looking to occupy the attacking third through the central midfielder and have the wide players attack the flanks of Remo’s 4-4-2. With averages of 12 shots and five corners, the hosts are more likely to build through volume and second balls than outright dominance. Rodrigo Santana may compact two banks of four, protect the area and seek quick transitions — a logical route for a side that creates little on average but needs points away from home. The most delicate contest will be in Mirassol’s penalty area: their territorial pressure will only hold if the replacement goalkeeper handles crosses and set pieces well.
📊 Market expectation (1X2)
Market heat 🔥🔥🔥Odds movement ±1pts
Market read：The market makes Mirassol clear but not overwhelming favourites: 54.1% for a home win against 20.3% for Remo. The 25.6% draw price deserves respect because this is a meeting between two bottom-four sides and Mirassol are without both listed goalkeepers. No Poisson projection has been provided to challenge the odds; accordingly, the low-scoring reading is based more on the 1.11 to 0.17 xG split, shot volume and absences than on an external statistical model. Recent form should also be adjusted for the quality of the opponents faced.
De-vigged implied probability · for analysis only, not betting advice.
📐 Statistical score reference
Poisson reference based only on season goal averages. It is not the full-analysis prediction or betting advice.
🎓 Coaches / Formations
Coaches & tactical battle：Rafael Guanaes, a 44-year-old Brazilian, has been at Mirassol since March 2025 and has 13 years of managerial experience, including spells with Atlético Goianiense, Operário-PR and Novorizontino. His Mirassol are structurally consistent in the 4-2-3-1, used in 71% of matches, and their 12 shots per game suggest an initiative-taking approach, although the 4-4-9 record warrants caution over efficiency. Rodrigo Santana, also Brazilian, is 43, has 12 years of coaching experience, has managed ten clubs and has been at Remo since May 2024; the 4-4-2 points to two clearer defensive lines and direct attacks after regaining possession. The key is for Mirassol to find the midfielder between the lines before resorting to crosses, while Remo need to attack the space left by the hosts’ full-backs quickly and test the replacement goalkeeper.
🔬 Advanced data (averages)
Per-game averages in this competition · FootyStats / API-Football
🚩 Corners & special markets
Mirassol average five corners, compared with Remo’s four, and should spend more time attacking given their volume profile of 12 shots against nine. Remo’s 4-4-2 can protect the edge of the area, but may concede crosses and deflections for corners if they retreat too deeply. The tactical trend favours the hosts in the corner market without requiring a match above 2.5 goals; Mirassol’s goalkeeping absences also make every defensive set piece a warning sign.
X-factors
- ▸The performance of the goalkeeper replacing Walter and Alex Muralha could either neutralise or magnify Mirassol’s expected territorial superiority.
- ▸Patrick de Paula’s absence removes one of Remo’s technically stronger set-piece and midfield options, although transitions could still target the hosts’ goalkeeping uncertainty.
- ▸According to local reports, Remo recently beat Vitória 2-0; that result suggests confidence away from home, but does not override the available low attacking indicators.
What to watch
- ▸Mirassol’s goalkeeper selection and the defence’s communication on crosses.
- ▸Remo’s ability to play through the first press and turn recoveries into counter-attacks.
- ▸Mirassol’s corner count, which should rise if Remo defend in a deeper 4-4-2 block.
📈 Recent form
- 2026-09-06 · (A) 2–1 vs Coritiba
- 2026-09-02 · (A) 0–2 vs Flamengo
- 2026-08-30 · (H) 1–1 vs Palmeiras
- 2026-08-23 · (A) 1–1 vs Santos
- 2026-08-16 · (H) 1–5 vs Flamengo
- 2026-09-06 · (H) 0–1 vs Flamengo
- 2026-08-31 · (H) 2–3 vs Coritiba
- 2026-08-22 · (A) 1–2 vs Fluminense
- 2026-08-17 · (A) 1–1 vs Internacional
- 2026-08-08 · (H) 2–2 vs Atletico-MG
🆚 Head-to-head
- 2026-07-29 · Mirassol 2–1 Remo
🧑⚖️ Referee
Lucas Paulo Torezin, Brazil
Referee averages in this competition · 27 games · PK Sport
✅ Confirmed lineups · Mirassol [4-3-3]
API-Football · 29 Jul 2026, 22:05 UTC
- 90Thomazella
- 32Igor Formiga
- 34João Victor
- 44Gabriel Knesowitsch
- 6Reinaldo
- 8Denilson
- 33Eduardo
- 5Japa
- 19Gustavo Silva
- 30Bruno Santos
- 95Edson Carioca
✅ Confirmed lineups · Remo [4-2-3-1]
API-Football · 29 Jul 2026, 22:05 UTC
- 88Marcelo Rangel
- 79Marcelinho
- 13Marllon
- 27Zé Ivaldo
- 77Mayk
- 8Patrick
- 14Leonel Picco
- 22Yago Pikachu
- 55Zé Ricardo
- 11Alef Manga
- 19Gabriel Taliari
🚑 Injuries / Absences
- outAlesson
- outJose Aldo· squad midfielder
His absence reduces the options available to control possession and refresh the midfield during a territorially demanding match.
- outNegueba· wide attacker used for acceleration and dribbling
Mirassol lose an option for attacking one-on-ones and breaking through a possible low Remo block.
- outNeto Moura· holding midfielder responsible for ball-winning and build-up
Without him, Mirassol lose an option to protect against transitions and provide balance behind the attacking midfielders.
- outWalter· first-choice goalkeeper and experienced team leader
His absence removes a central figure from the defensive organisation and makes every Remo shot or cross more dangerous.
- outEduardo Melo· squad player
His absence reduces Remo’s rotation options, although there is no line-up information to assess a structural change.
- outJoao Lucas· squad player
The absence reduces defensive options, particularly if Rodrigo Santana needs to adjust the full-back line during the match.
- outPatrick de Paula· technically gifted midfielder offering passing and shooting from distance
Remo lose a player capable of improving possession, set pieces and efforts from outside the area in a match where chances may be limited.
- outD. Tchamba· squad player
The absence shortens Remo’s options, with insufficient data to state its direct effect on the starting formation.
⚡ Key intel: favorable & unfavorable factors
- + FavorableWillian Machado returns after serving his suspension, and Eduardo has resumed normal training, giving Mirassol more options in defence and midfield. Having both available helps the team maintain its starting structure in a direct relegation battle.
- − UnfavorableAlex Muralha remains out while recovering from a calf injury, while Neto Moura is still doubtful with a muscular problem. Their absences could reduce Mirassol’s defensive security and quality in playing out from the back.
- + FavorableMarcelo Rangel recovered from knee surgery, reclaimed the starting spot and was decisive in the 2–0 victory over Vitória, making five saves. The goalkeeper’s strong form strengthens Remo, who arrive with momentum for a direct battle against the Z-4.
- − UnfavorableRemo will be without captain Marllon, suspended after receiving his third yellow card, while Tchamba remains doubtful with muscular discomfort. Zé Ivaldo and Matheus Felipe are expected to form the centre-back pairing, a change that could affect defensive understanding away from home.
AI-curated from all collected news: only facts likely to affect the result.
📰 Recent news
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Only intel rated ≥3★ impact is shown.
🧭 Final integrated verdict
Série A brings two bottom-four sides separated by one point into a match likely to be decided by fine margins and cautious decisions. Mirassol have home advantage, market support and superior attacking indicators — 1.11 xG, 12 shots and five corners against Remo’s 0.17 xG, nine shots and four corners. Guanaes should use his 4-2-3-1 to push the visitors back, while Santana has reason to keep Remo compact and target the vulnerability created by the absences of Walter and Alex Muralha. Remo’s recent run and the reported win over Vitória prevent a comfortable home reading, but the visitors’ attacking shortcomings still carry greater weight. The final call is a Mirassol win and under 2.5 goals, with the hosts controlling territory but gaining little margin on the scoreboard.
🎯 Analysis decision
The conclusion combines competition context, team traits, form, tactics, availability, match intel, graded lessons and market/model references.
Analysis based on public data and market signals. For analysis only — not betting advice.
Data: Sportmonks / API-Football · pksport.net