Santos vs Macara: result, lineups & analysis — CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Thursday, 13 August 2026 at 22:00 UTC
🏟 Estádio Urbano Caldeira · Santos
🏁 Post-match review
Santos defeated Macará 2–1 in a CONMEBOL Sudamericana match. The result keeps the home side in a strong position in the tie, while the group leaders suffered a narrow defeat.
Expectation：The result confirmed the pre-match assessment and market favourite, which assigned Santos a 67.7% chance of winning. It was therefore an expected outcome, although a closely fought one given Macará’s good form and position at the top of the group.
The victory puts Santos in a competitive position in the group and prevents Macará from extending their lead. The scoreline also matched expectations of a match with over 2.5 goals.
Based on the final score and pre-match analysis (no in-match events).
📋 Overview
Confidence 3/5Santos have the attacking volume and home advantage to control the match, but Macará arrive top of the group and in more consistent recent form, so the visitors’ resilience must be respected.
The market makes Santos strong favourites, with a 67.6% implied win probability, compared with 20.3% for the draw and 12.1% for Macará. The objective basis for that price lies in Santos’ attacking volume: averages of 2.34 xG, 20.8 shots and 8.2 corners in the available sample. Macará lead the group with 10 points from six matches and come in on DDDWW, while Santos are second on seven points and have a LWDWDW record in the continental standings.
📌 Analysis direction
Santos should impose territory, shot volume and corner pressure against a more compact Macará side focused on transitions. The main variable is the hosts’ efficiency in turning that pressure into an advantage before the group leaders can exploit the space behind the full-backs.
🎯 Final analysis grade
8/10✓ Got right: The analysis correctly identified the main factors in the match: Santos controlled territory, had 71% possession and won 2-1, exactly one of the projected scorelines. It also correctly read Macará as a reactive side, with just 29% possession, six shots and one on target, while distinguishing home-team favoritism from the goal expectation.
✗ Missed: Santos' attacking output was overstated compared with the pre-match baseline: the team finished with 11 shots and 1.62 xG, below the 20.8 shots and 2.34 xG used as reference points. In addition, Macará produced 1.19 xG despite its low volume, showing that the risk from the visitors' transitions deserved slightly more weight.
Post-match self-grade of our pre-match analysis (1-10). Feeds the system’s learning loop.
🔑 Key points
Santos’ attacking volume
Santos’ 2.34 xG and 20.8 shots per game point to a side capable of sustaining territorial pressure. With 8.2 corners on average, they are likely to make frequent entries into the final third and launch repeated attacks.
The group remains open
Macará have 10 points, three more than Santos, and lead the group; Santos are second on seven. The visitors have little reason to commit early, as a competitive result would preserve their position, while the hosts must turn dominance into an advantage.
The market points to goals, but not strongly to BTTS
The secondary market gives over 2.5 goals a 57% probability, suggesting a slight lean towards three or more goals. BTTS stands at 49%, below the break-even point, which fits a scenario of Santos-led attacking production more than an assured end-to-end contest.
Coaches with contrasting ideas
Juan Pablo Vojvoda is likely to set Santos up in a 4-2-3-1, with high occupation between the lines and counter-pressing after turnovers. Guillermo Sanguinetti generally uses a 4-3-3 at Macará and, given their lead and status as underdogs, should prioritise compactness and wide exits.
Team news requires caution
There has been a report that Neymar was rested for a previous Santos trip to Venezuela, but there is no confirmation that he will be absent for this match. The other reports concerning Santos’ absences refer to a different game against Athletico-PR and should not automatically be carried over to this fixture.
⚖️ Edges & risks per team
- +Santos combine home advantage with 2.34 xG and 20.8 shots in the advanced sample; that points to a capacity to create even if Macará sit deep and gives the market favourite a concrete tactical basis.
- +An average of 8.2 corners reflects repeated pressure from the flanks and second balls. Against visitors likely to concede possession given the group context, this route could keep Macará pinned back.
- +Juan Pablo Vojvoda’s 4-2-3-1 supports central occupation and runs from the wingers, a suitable structure for attacking a 4-3-3 midfield without relying on a single pattern.
- +Despite a LWDWDW record in the standings, Santos have scored 11 and conceded seven in their last six matches. Their recent attacking output is real, and the mixed results do not erase their ability to generate attacks.
- −Although they have won three of their last five matches in the LWDWDW sample, Santos need to score first to prevent Macará from imposing the kind of game the group leaders are comfortable with.
- −The seven goals conceded in their last six matches show that Santos’ control is not automatic. Turnovers during full-back advances could expose them to transitions.
- −The report that Neymar was rested on a previous trip creates uncertainty over his availability and fitness, but does not confirm his absence here. Without an official line-up, any attacking adjustment based on it would be premature.
- −The market is heavily tilted towards Santos, while Macará lead the group by three points. That gap between external expectation and competitive context increases the hosts’ need for efficiency.
- +Macará lead the group with 10 points from six matches and come in on DDDWW. That position allows for a patient approach, with less need to overcommit and greater value in resisting Santos’ opening surge.
- +The 4-3-3 used in 57% of matches provides width to attack the space behind Santos’ full-backs. If they win the ball under pressure, the visitors can send their wingers into open-field duels.
- +Guillermo Sanguinetti has 14 years of coaching experience, 11 clubs managed and a start at the club of three wins, four draws and no defeats. The unbeaten run guarantees nothing, but suggests a side adapting well to tight-margin matches.
- +Santos’ LWDWDW form and seven goals conceded in six recent matches indicate that Macará do not need to dominate to threaten: one well-executed transition could change the script.
- −There are no advanced Macará figures to match Santos’ volume, while the hosts record 2.34 xG and 20.8 shots. The visitors risk spending too much time defending their own penalty area.
- −Santos average 8.2 corners in the available sample. If Macará block crosses and shots without clearing the second ball, sustained pressure could wear down their defensive structure.
- −Macará have only a 12.1% implied win probability in the market. That is not evidence from the pitch in itself, but it signals that they will need to outperform expectations to win away.
- −The 4-3-3 could become split if the wingers push forward too early in search of counter-attacks. Against a Santos side with a midfielder between the lines and advancing full-backs, the visitors’ midfielders will need to protect a wide central zone.
📐 Tactical analysis
Vojvoda’s 4-2-3-1 should give Santos a central midfielder operating between the lines of Macará’s 4-3-3, as well as overloads in the wide areas when the wingers move inside and the full-backs overlap. The hosts are expected to dominate possession and volume, supported by their averages of 20.8 shots and 8.2 corners in the advanced sample. Sanguinetti may narrow the space in front of his own box by keeping the midfield line closer to the defence, then seek quick attacks through the wide players using the 4-3-3’s width. Santos’ key concern is avoiding disjointed turnovers: Macará do not need much possession to make the match uncomfortable if they find space in transition.
📊 Market expectation (1X2)
Market heat 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥Odds movement ±8pts
Market read：Odds of 1.38, 4.60 and 7.70 equate to 67.6% for a Santos win, 20.3% for the draw and 12.1% for a Macará win after removing the margin. That is clear home-team favouritism, supported by the available attacking volume, but it is not a licence to ignore the table: Macará lead the group and arrive on the back of two consecutive wins. The 57% over-2.5 line is consistent with Santos’ production; the 49% BTTS figure suggests separating the goal expectation from any certainty of an away goal. Raw form should also be treated cautiously, as the strength of the opponents faced by each side is not available here.
De-vigged implied probability · for analysis only, not betting advice.
📐 Statistical score reference
Poisson reference based only on season goal averages. It is not the full-analysis prediction or betting advice.
🎓 Coaches / Formations
Coaches & tactical battle：Juan Pablo Vojvoda, a 50-year-old Argentine, has been at Santos since April 2025 and brings 10 years of experience across seven clubs, including Fortaleza, Unión La Calera and Huracán. His 4-2-3-1, used in 50% of matches, helps explain the high figures of 2.34 xG and 20.8 shots: a central creator, width and pressure to recover the ball near the opposition box. Guillermo Sanguinetti, a 59-year-old Uruguayan, joined Macará in the same period and has 14 years of experience across 11 clubs; his 4-3-3 appears in 57% of matches. The decisive battle will be in the space between Macará’s midfield and defence: if the midfield trio closes that zone, the visitors can transition effectively; if Santos receive facing forward there, the volume should produce higher-quality chances.
🔬 Advanced data (averages)
Per-game averages in this competition · FootyStats / API-Football
🚩 Corners & special markets
The available data strongly favours Santos in corner pressure: they average 8.2 per game, a consequence of 20.8 shots and constant attacking presence. Without Macará’s corner average, there is no basis for projecting significant away volume; tactically, the scenario supports more Santos corners than an even set-piece exchange. Santos’ frequent attacks also support the over-2.5 reading, but the market’s 49% BTTS figure means an away goal cannot be treated as a premise.
X-factors
- ▸How Santos convert their high volume: 20.8 shots and 2.34 xG only become an early advantage if they are efficient in the box.
- ▸Macará’s ability to withstand the initial pressure without conceding a succession of corners and second balls.
- ▸The actual status of Neymar and the players mentioned in the reports, as there are no official line-ups or confirmed absences for this match.
What to watch
- ▸Santos’ starting line-up and whether Neymar is involved, without treating the previous travel report as confirmation for this round.
- ▸The duel between Santos’ central midfielder and the player protecting the edge of Macará’s penalty area.
- ▸Santos’ first-half corner count, a direct indicator of territorial pressure and strain on the visitors’ defensive line.
📈 Recent form
- 2026-09-06 · (A) 3–2 vs Internacional
- 2026-09-03 · (H) 0–0 vs Palmeiras
- 2026-08-30 · (A) 1–0 vs Corinthians
- 2026-08-27 · (A) 0–3 vs Palmeiras
- 2026-08-23 · (H) 1–1 vs Mirassol
- 2026-08-20 · (H) 0–0 vs Santos
- 2026-08-13 · (A) 1–2 vs Santos
🆚 Head-to-head
- 2026-08-20 · Macara 0–0 Santos
- 2026-08-13 · Santos 2–1 Macara
🧑⚖️ Referee
Kevin Ortega, Peru
Referee averages in this competition · 2 games · PK Sport
✅ Confirmed lineups · Santos [4-2-3-1]
API-Football · 13 Aug 2026, 21:33 UTC
- 77Gabriel Brazão
- 25Gabriel Menino
- 15Willian Arão
- 14Luan Peres
- 31Gonzalo Escobar
- 28Christian Oliva
- 5João Schmidt
- 8Gabriel Bontempo
- 10Neymar
- 22Álvaro Barreal
- 9Gabriel Barbosa
✅ Confirmed lineups · Macara [4-2-3-1]
API-Football · 13 Aug 2026, 21:33 UTC
- 1Rodrigo Rodríguez
- 25Denilson Bolaños
- 21Santiago Etchebarne
- 14José Luis Marrufo
- 13Luis Ayala
- 5Jean Carlos Estacio
- 16Jose Cazares
- 28Agustin Campana
- 10Matías Miranda
- 20Mateo Viera
- 9Franco Posse
⚡ Key intel: favorable & unfavorable factors
- + FavorableNeymar has returned to full training and is available to face Macará after serving his suspension. The No. 10’s presence strengthens Santos’ creativity and decision-making, with the team’s record significantly better when he plays.
- − UnfavorableSantos continue to deal with major fitness problems: Igor Vinícius is doubtful, while Lucas Veríssimo, Moisés, Vinícius Lira, Gustavo Henrique and Pepê Fermino are out. The absences reduce defensive options and increase Santos’ reliance on Neymar in a thin squad.
- − UnfavorableCuca is considering resting regular starters and prioritising competitions because of the schedule, the absences and the simultaneous involvement in three tournaments. Possible rotation could weaken Santos in the first leg of the last 16, especially with the team under pressure from the relegation zone.
- − UnfavorableSantos arrive shaken after losing to Athletico-PR and returning to the relegation zone, increasing pressure on the squad and coaching staff. Victory against Macará is seen as necessary to ease the tension.
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AI-curated from all collected news: only facts likely to affect the result.
📰 Recent news
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Only intel rated ≥3★ impact is shown.
🧭 Final integrated verdict
The Copa Sudamericana brings together Santos, second on seven points, and Macará, top on ten, meaning the visitors have every reason to manage the game and protect their position in the group. Even so, the hosts offer the strongest attacking signal: 2.34 xG, 20.8 shots and 8.2 corners suggest enough pressure to pin back a more reactive opponent. Vojvoda is likely to use the 4-2-3-1 to push Macará deep, while Sanguinetti’s 4-3-3 should seek wide transitions and keep the draw alive. There are no confirmed absences, and the report that Neymar was rested on a previous trip creates uncertainty over his availability, but it is not enough to overturn the assessment. The market’s 67.6% Santos win probability and 57% over-2.5 expectation reflect the hosts’ territorial advantage, although Macará’s lead and DDDWW sequence indicate that this should not be straightforward. The final call is a Santos win and over 2.5 goals, with the visitors having arguments to contribute in some scenarios but not enough known volume to alter the main favourite.
🎯 Analysis decision
The conclusion combines competition context, team traits, form, tactics, availability, match intel, graded lessons and market/model references.
Analysis based on public data and market signals. For analysis only — not betting advice.
Data: Sportmonks / API-Football · pksport.net