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Toluca vs Necaxa: result, lineups & analysis — Liga MX

Liga MXFinished
Toluca
Toluca
3–1
Necaxa
Necaxa

Monday, 3 August 2026 at 01:10 UTC

🏟 Estadio Nemesio Diez · Toluca

📊 Market expectation (1X2)

Market heat 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Toluca1.46 · 64%
X4.70 · 20%
Necaxa5.90 · 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Both teams to score
Yes58%
No42%

Odds movement ±3pts

De-vigged implied probability · for analysis only, not betting advice.

📐 Statistical score reference

Toluca
1.9 - 1.0
Necaxa
Projected total: 2.9Over 2.5: 56%
ModelMarket
58%
64%Toluca
22%
20%X
20%
16%Necaxa

Poisson reference based only on season goal averages. It is not the full-analysis prediction or betting advice.

🎓 Coaches / Formations

Toluca· 2º · 13Pts
4-2-3-180% usage
👔 A. Mohamed · Argentina
In charge since 2024 · 55
Experience: 18y · 10 clubs
Ex-clubs: Pumas UNAM, Atlético Mineiro, Monterrey
W-D-L: 3-1-1
Necaxa· 12º · 7Pts
3-4-2-1
👔 F. Gago · Argentina
In charge since 2025 · 39
Experience: 5y · 5 clubs
Ex-clubs: Boca Juniors, Guadalajara, Racing Club

🔬 Advanced data (averages)

Toluca
5 / 6 games
Necaxa
1.36
xG
1.45
6
Corners
4.5
2.17
Points/game
1.4
50%
Clean sheets
0%
62%
Possession
49%
17
Shots
16

Per-game averages in this competition · FootyStats / API-Football

📈 Recent form

TolucaWWDWLW
  • 2026-08-31 · (H) 4–0 vs FC Juarez
  • 2026-08-22 · (A) 2–1 vs Club Queretaro
  • 2026-08-15 · (A) 0–0 vs Atlante FC
  • 2026-08-03 · (H) 3–1 vs Necaxa
  • 2026-07-22 · (H) 1–2 vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
NecaxaLDLDLL
  • 2026-09-12 · (H) 0–1 vs Puebla
  • 2026-09-06 · (A) 1–1 vs Tigres UANL
  • 2026-08-29 · (H) 1–3 vs Cruz Azul
  • 2026-08-24 · (A) 1–1 vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
  • 2026-08-18 · (H) 1–2 vs Leon

🆚 Head-to-head

🧑‍⚖️ Referee

J. Valle

6
Cards/game
3
Goals/game
67%
BTTS

Referee averages in this competition · 3 games · PK Sport

✅ Confirmed lineups · Toluca [4-2-3-1]

API-Football · 3 Aug 2026, 00:45 UTC

  1. 22Luis García
  2. 19Santiago Simón
  3. 25Everardo López
  4. 6Federico Pereira
  5. 20Jesús Gallardo
  6. 29Jorge Díaz
  7. 5Franco Romero
  8. 10Jesús Ricardo Angulo
  9. 35Érick Gutiérrez
  10. 9Alexis Vega
  11. 21Ivan López

✅ Confirmed lineups · Necaxa [3-4-2-1]

API-Football · 3 Aug 2026, 00:45 UTC

  1. 12Luis Jimenez
  2. 33Raúl Martínez
  3. 4Alexis Peña
  4. 3Agustín Oliveros
  5. 30Ricardo Monreal
  6. 8Lorenzo Faravelli
  7. 6Danny Leyva
  8. 88Carlos Vargas
  9. 11Juan Torres
  10. 10Javier Ruiz
  11. 9Julián Carranza

⚡ Key intel: favorable & unfavorable factors

Toluca

—

Necaxa

—

AI-curated from all collected news: only facts likely to affect the result.

📰 Recent news

  • C★★★★
  • C★★★

Only intel rated ≥3★ impact is shown.

Other matches this round

→
Club America vs Santos Laguna3–0Cruz Azul vs Atlante FC2–3Atlas vs Monterrey0–2Leon vs CF Pachuca1–0Club Queretaro vs Tigres UANL3–2FC Juarez vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas1–5

Analysis based on public data and market signals. For analysis only — not betting advice.

Data: Sportmonks / API-Football · pksport.net

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