De-vigged implied probability · for analysis only, not betting advice.

🎯 Score model

Poisson model over season goal averages — reference only, not betting advice. Small samples lower accuracy.

🎓 Coaches / Formations

🔬 Advanced data (averages)

Per-game averages in this competition · FootyStats / API-Football

📈 Recent form

📰 Recent news

• C★★★★
  Mikel Merino comes full circle with Spain in touching tale of fathers and sons | Sid Lowe

  Mikel Merino scored a late winner (beyond 90min) in Spain's World Cup 2026 last-16 match vs Portugal, securing quarter-final qualification. Merino returned from a stress fracture in his foot that sidelined him for two months pre-tournament; he played only 28 minutes between January and the World Cup, arrived in Chattanooga still not fully fit, but was introduced as a substitute and delivered the decisive goal after just six minutes on the pitch.

• C★★★★
  Marcus Rashford expected to start new season back at Manchester United

  Marcus Rashford is set to return to Manchester United pre-season after the World Cup following his loan spells at Aston Villa and Barcelona; manager Michael Carrick will reintegrate him into the squad with no reported issues between them. Rashford will have a three-week break after England's World Cup campaign before returning for pre-season training, with United preferring to sell him (£17.5m/year salary) but lacking suitable buyers despite Barcelona's interest being closed off by their £60.7m signing of Anthony Gordon.

• C★★★★
  Ancelotti projeta Brasil x Noruega e avalia situação de Neymar: “Pode jogar 90 minutos”

  Ancelotti confirmed Neymar is fully fit and capable of playing 90 minutes despite recent bench starts; the Brazil coach will deploy him based on match needs. Ancelotti highlighted Norway's defensive organization and Haaland as key threats, expressing confidence in Brazil's mental preparation for the Round of 16 clash on Sunday at 17:00 (Brasília time).

• C★★★
  A França dos talentos múltiplos: Doué abre a retranca paraguaia

  France beat Paraguay 1-0 in the World Cup Round of 16 thanks to a penalty scored by Mbappé after Doué, coming off the bench, drew a foul from Diego Gómez. Deschamps made just one change from the Sweden rout, benching Tchouaméni for Koné alongside Rabiot, with Doué and Théo Hernández again starting as substitutes. Paraguay's Alderete re-aggravated an injury and was replaced, while Enciso also went off; Alfaro brought on Canale, Caballero, Mauricio and Ávalos as Paraguay pushed for an equalizer late on.

• C★★★
  England vs Mexico kick-off time to remain unchanged after FIFA talks amid threat of severe weather

  FIFA confirmed England vs Mexico's World Cup last-16 clash at Estadio Azteca will kick off at 6pm local time (1am BST) as scheduled, rejecting a proposed shift to noon despite threats of thunderstorms; Mexico coach Javier Aguirre had publicly criticized the potential late change as 'angry'-inducing. England, who trained in Kansas City before flying in Friday, face a challenge from the stadium's 7,220-foot altitude, with Mexico's previous match there against Ecuador delayed an hour by lightning.

• A
  Jordan Henderson has today undergone surgery on his left arm at Kansas City Orthopaedic Institute.
• C
  England sees off an immense challenge from Mexico in what may be the best game of the 2026 World Cup
• C
  Train station renamed after England star to celebrate World Cup

Only intel rated ≥3★ impact is shown.

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